Summer Weather 2025: How Hot Is It Going to Get?

How to Prevent Your AC from Breaking Down in the Heat

After 2024 broke heat records across the globe and in the U.S., experts say the extreme heat isn’t letting up – in fact, 2025 could be even hotter. HVAC.com breaks down how hot it’s expected to get, what that means for your air conditioning system, and what you can do to stay cool this summer.

Looking Back: The Record-Breaking Summer of 2024

The average annual temperature across the contiguous U.S. in 2024 was 55.5°F – 3.5 degrees above the 20th-century average – ranking as the warmest year in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 130-year climate record. It was also the fourth hottest summer on record, with a nationwide average temperature of 73.8°F.

Nearly every state experienced above-average temperatures, with 17 states recording their warmest year ever. This unprecedented heat led to widespread climate-related disasters, including severe heatwaves and intense storms.

According to NOAA, the planet’s 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade.

Summer Weather Predictions

As we turn the page to summer 2025, there doesn’t appear to be much relief in sight. Here’s how the summer weather forecast could shape up over the next few months, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac:

• Hottest Regions: The vast majority of the U.S. is predicted to experience hotter-than-normal summer temperatures, with a few exceptions. The Deep South and Desert Southwest are forecasted to endure significantly warmer conditions. Texas and Oklahoma could see temperatures up to 4°F above normal, while the Heartland states, including Kansas and Iowa, are also expected to be 4°F above normal. These areas could face heat lengthy waves, making it important to be prepared for extreme temperatures.
• Coolest Areas: Southern Florida and the Pacific Northwest are the only two regions the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts may avoid above-normal summer temperatures.
• Rainiest Areas: Above-average rainfall is forecasted south of the Great Lakes, including Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. Additionally, northern and central New England, southern Florida, Hawaii, and southern Alaska are expected to receive more precipitation than usual.​
• Driest Regions: The Great Plains, Texas, and Oklahoma may experience the driest conditions this summer, where rainfall is likely to be lower than average.

How the Heat Affects Your HVAC System

Prolonged heat can put a serious strain on your HVAC system. As summer temperatures climb, your air conditioner has to work harder and run longer to maintain a comfortable indoor environment. This nearly continuous operation increases wear on key components like compressors, capacitors, and blower motors, especially in older systems or those lacking regular maintenance.

In hot and humid regions like the Southeast, the challenge is even greater. High humidity forces your system to cool the air and remove excess moisture. When it can’t keep up, your home may feel damp or sticky even if the thermostat says it’s cool. Poor humidity control can also lead to mold, mildew, and compromised indoor air quality.

Without proper care, all of this extra demand can lead to reduced performance – or worse, a breakdown – right when you need your AC the most.

Preparing Your HVAC System for Summer

Here are a few smart steps to take to help ensure your central air conditioner keeps up with the summer heat:

1. Schedule a Professional Tune-Up: Have a certified HVAC technician inspect and service your system to catch any potential issues early.
2. Replace Air Filters Regularly: Dirty filters can restrict airflow and reduce efficiency. Replace air filters every 1-3 months.
3. Clear Debris Around Outdoor Units: Ensure that leaves, dirt, or other obstructions aren’t blocking airflow to your condenser unit.
4. Seal and Insulate Your Home: Proper insulation and sealing gaps can help maintain indoor temperatures and reduce the load on your HVAC system.
5. Upgrade to Energy-Efficient Models: If your system is over 10-15 years old, consider replacing it with a more energy-efficient model to improve performance and reduce energy costs.

More Ways to Beat the Heat at Home

In addition to keeping your HVAC system in good shape, there are small home adjustments that can make a big impact during extreme heat:

• Use ceiling fans strategically to improve airflow and help rooms feel up to 4°F cooler. In the summer, set them to spin counterclockwise to push cool air down and create a wind-chill effect that helps you feel more comfortable. Just remember to turn them off when you leave the room – they cool people, not spaces.
• Install a programmable or smart thermostat so you can pre-set higher temperatures while you’re at work or away from home. This saves energy, lowers your utility bills, and reduces unnecessary strain on your AC system without sacrificing comfort when you're back.
• Blackout curtains and reflective shades can significantly reduce solar heat gain, especially in west- and south-facing windows.
• Weatherstrip windows and doors to prevent cool air from escaping and warm air from sneaking in. Even small leaks can overwork your HVAC unit and raise energy bills.

🔥 Summer 2025 Quick Forecast Snapshot